Slow recovery, long-term growth

SYDNEY - I’ve been on the “road” again in Asia and the Pacific region. I’m in Australia at the moment, where we’ve had an opportunity to talk about Boeing’s outlook for the region we call Oceania - Australia, New Zealand, and the South Pacific Islands.

Later this week I’m off to Melbourne and then to Wellington and Auckland, New Zealand.

Meantime, we’ve had some good media coverage of our forecast, which indicates that the economic downturn has reached bottom. It’s going to be a long, slow process to recovery, but we’ve seen that the economy in this region has fared a bit better than the rest of the world.

Comments (7)

Thiagarajan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia):

Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has some 13 747s in service. Should discuss on switching to 747-8.

Mike W (London, UK):

What is Qantas' and Jetstar's position WRT the 787 these days?

Where do they slot in on the delivery schedule and have there been any further slips in their plans?

Chris C (South Africa):

The Boeing CMO is truly superb! It’s absolutely phenomenal on how much analysis has gone into each and every market world-wide to obtain the most accurate, logical and reasonable future market predictions. Boeing’s latest CMO certainly makes for many hours of interesting, thought provoking reading. Boeing clearly has the best, market preferred products in place.

In reference to the Oceania:
Of particular interest is that the fleet size of the 400-seat and larger market will remain constant over the next 20 years, with just 40 airplanes or a 6% market share! Out of those 40 airplanes, Qantas already has 20 Airbus A380s on order, so that leaves theoretically 20 additional airplanes needed over the next 20 years.

I guess this could mean either Qantas ordering additional A380s, or opting for an optimised and ultra-efficient seat-gap “filler” airplane in the 747-8I? Air New Zealand also could see a need to opt for the 747-8I, or even V Australia. Either way, the market for both the 747-8I and/or A380 in Oceania is extremely limited, and almost already all asked for.

David (Mizoram, Asia):

Why not give us some info on the development of the Boeing Y1 / Boeing 737RS, Randy? Which will be absolutely the most anticipated aircraft in the Asian Region and not the Dreamliner.

Paulo M (Johannesburg, RSA):

That's a part of the world that should be leading the rest out of recession. Hope you're making connections, and enjoying the local cultures and cuisine.

You know, the 777-300ER is out flying from Australia to North America in a single hop - a Kangaroo jump. That plane is a mighty impressive 365-seater twin-jet. Surely, that part of the world could do with a modern 460-something-seater. Let's see if you guys can sell that bird - rather than proving some of these airlines wrong.

Norman (Long Beach, California, United States):

Hopefully the recession will bottom out very soon as stated by liberal and conservative economists alike.

I like to see a focus on the 787-10X for the mid to late 2010's as a replacement for the 777-200/ER and a competitor to the A350-900 in range and seating capacity.

P.Sumantri (France):

I think recovery will be slow and future growth rate will be lower than expected as I indicated in my June 2009 comment in your blog (click here)
The industry must also accept a lower average annual growth rate during the next twenty years or so (click here)

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