Short stop

As you may have seen from my recent entries and from stories that have appeared in the media, I’ve been out on the road quite a lot over the past few weeks. I showed you some pictures from my time in Japan and Korea; since that time, I visited Munich, Moscow, Singapore and Miami — all without setting foot back in Seattle.

At my stops in Munich and Miami, I had the opportunity to speak at two important conferences —the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT) in Munich, and Cargo Facts in Miami. My guess is that combined attendance for these events was more than 1,000. That’s a real sign that the market’s on an upswing.

This week is a welcome respite for me and my family, as I’m back at home, with a chance to take a deep breath, relax a little bit and get my act together for my next trip — I’ll be in China next week to present the Current Market Outlook forecast for that region, and visit the Airfinance Journal conference in Hong Kong Nov. 4-5.

As I prepare for my upcoming trip, my office has been abuzz with activity as we look back on 2010 and look ahead to 2011.

By any measure, 2010 has been a good year for the commercial air transport industry: worldwide economic growth has averaged a strong 3.7 percent; passenger traffic has grown at about 7 percent for the year; and cargo traffic is up 19 percent. IATA now says that the world’s airlines will make close to $9 billion in profits for the year.

It’s a good time to look back and see what’s been a good year. Here’s a video that we shared with BCA employees at third-quarter earnings last week that lists some of their accomplishments over the quarter — our people do amazing things every day!

With 2010 almost in the books, our focus is turning to 2011. So, what do we expect? We estimate that GDP will grow at or slightly above our long-term forecast; passenger traffic will be up 5% and cargo traffic up 6%. And just like 2010, IATA forecast another year of airline profitability. Certainly good news for airlines that are looking to further repair their balance sheets or are investing in the future.

In addition to looking at this year and next from a business standpoint, I’ve been thinking about what I’d like to discuss in the blog as we work our way to the end of the year. Some of the things I plan to talk about include: the continued strength of the single-aisle market and the future of that market; the return of twin-aisles; the ABCs of production rates; Boeing’s forecast for pilots and mechanics; the upcoming release of our cargo and freighter forecast; and our view on seating capacity.

Of course, this blog is supposed to be a dialog — so what’s on your mind? What issues would you like to discuss over the coming months?

Comments (16)

Vero Venia (Montreal, Canada):

You asked, "so what’s on your mind?"

When is the next 747-8 Intercontinental order?

Vero Venia

Roel Steemers (The Hague):

Dear Mr. Tinseth,

First let me start by saying I very much admire your blog as CMO. Currently, for my final thesis in communication science, I am researching the phenomenon of executive blogs. I am trying to link these kinds of blogs to corporate positioning. My approach involves among others a content analysis of exemplary executive blogs linked to large companies. Would it be possible for me to ask you some questions via email about your motivation and experience as executive blogger for background information? If you are interested, I would be more than happy to provide details about my study as well as its findings in a later stage. Thank you in advance for your response.

Yours sincerely,

Roel Steemers

Don Harrington (Bellevue, WA):

Randy, as always, great information. Nice video, too!

What would I like to see? Of course, continuing coverage of the 787 and 747-8 up to first delivery. Looking forward to seeing coverage of the 787-9 as it nears first build and first flight. News of the potential 737 follow-on and the KC-X competition.

That should keep you busy for a little while. ;-)

J.D. Drollinger (Renton, Wa):

Randy, Thank you so much for sharing. I always look forward to seeing your blogs. I can really hear the excitement in what you are doing and that gives me excitement and pride in all the Boeing is doing.

BA Investor (New York City):

Randy,

The Seattle pi released a story this morning that Boeing has announced a service that will provide real time information to the pilot and crew of subscribing airlines which will enable them to dynamically change their course of flight so as to maximize the efficiency and minimize the time flying. It will result in significant fuel savings.

This sounds like remarkable technology that will contribute to not only cost savings but environmental benefits too.

Sounds like a win win for everyone and hopefully a constructive source of revenue for Boeing in the near future.

Perhaps you could tell us more about this

Jim R (Huntington Beach, CA):

Randy:
Although airline company profits are edging up, customer satisfaction with the flying experience is sliding down. It would be interesting to know if the technological improvements (interiors, noise reduction, overhead storage, etc.) of our products help to reverse that trend (and it would make a great selling point too!).
I've logged 1000's of miles traveling for the company, and must say that the benefits of spending time in a pleasant cabin environment should not be underestimated.

Kevin (Los Angeles, CA):

How about ABCs of aircraft marketing/sales to the extent that you can outline the steps taken by an airline and Boeing before an order materializes?

tom (Germany):

Randy,

2011 will be a very important year for BCA with a lot of objectives - but most of them from previous years:
- the first deliveries of 787s with RR and GE engines
- 747-8 (F and I)
- production ramp ups, 767 tankers....

But to another issues: After a cockpit crew of 4, there are now the first(?) questions if the copilot will be needed any more on short flights. 0/0 take off or landing is already possible (if airport, a/c, and crew are licensed). Navigation on airports is becoming as easy as automotive navigation in mega cities with a car. In the air - the autopilot does all the work - the pilots are waiting, watching,..at least one might support the cabin crew!
This is not my idea - cockpit automation will increase: Where are we now?

Patrick Hannah (Big Rapids, MI):

Randy,
First, I love your blog! I am an avid Boeing fan and hope to see the plant tour in Seattle in the near future.
I have always wondered how you come up with the seating capacity for each plane; as each airline has a different configuration.
However, the two things I am most excited/interested are the 747-8I First Flight as well as the 787-9 First Flight.
On a personal note, as soon as I pay off all of my debts (March 2013) I will be planning many flights to places that I have wanted to see for a long time; including Dubai, UAE.

Grace Feng Hsu (Krikland, WA):

Good report! Would like you to talk about the big differences and changes between 2010 & 2011 for Boeing. Thank you!

Freddy Hagens (Everett):

Great that you also went to Cargofacts. I have been to that one and found it to be very informative and educational. Having worked on cargo conversions, it is amazing how this market segment is picking up again as the 737-300/-400 have become of right age just like the 727-200 were in the 90s.

Thomas Horstmann, Jr. (Portland, Oregon):

Randy,

This is one of the most interesting blogs I know of, with a mix of product news, personal tales from the road, memorabilia, plus assorted videos and photos. In short, I look forward to every update. Please keep it up.

tf (az):

I would like hear a little about what technological advances are on the horizon to improve performance or fuel consumption.
How much will be contributed by- engine efficiency, weight reduction, aerodynamics of the plane, etc, etc.

Kinbin (Taipei Taiwan):

Randy, enjoyed your blog, albeit having myself wonder if the info given is the official tag line, which probably is.

After giving the tag line (which you may cut and paste from the official sources), do give your personal spin to the tag in 2011. You probably need to get comms to give the green light if this blog is owned by Boeing (again probably the case since you are using the logo), and attach the disclaimer statement.

It will make the blog much more lively and interesting if your expressed personal views stray from corporate. :-)

Paulo M (Johannesburg, RSA):

Looking good. The airline recovery is a bit ahead of the economy though. Looking forward to all those topics as you roll them out. Perhaps a post on new cabin systems - inflight entertainment & connectivity - in addition to those Sky Interior changes.

Nice blog header! I'm really looking forward to seeing the 747-8I leave the ground.

Norman (Long Beach, California, United States):

Very nice video.

In my mind I hope to see the next orders for the 747-8 Intercontinental come from Japan Airlines and ANA since they have plans to acquire the cargo variation of the 747-8. I like to see more thought and development go to the 787-10X as a successor to the 777-200ER though it is very early in the program. All the talk of a 737 and 777 successor in the internet is perking up my ears with anticipation of new designs.

Post a comment

We welcome your comments. However all comments are moderated and may not post immediately. Offensive or off-topic comments will not be posted. We will not treat any comments you submit as confidential information. Please do not submit comments that contain any confidential information belonging to anyone else.

By submitting a comment to Randy's Journal, you agree to our site terms and privacy policy, and to having your name displayed with your comment. All or part of your comment may be posted or cited in the blog. Your name and personal information will not be used for any other purpose, and we will not publish your e-mail address.

 

More posts