It’s not easy trying to predict 20 years into the future. But here at Boeing, we have an excellent track record forecasting what’s ahead for the aviation market. For the past five decades, we’ve produced our Current Market Outlook (CMO) to help us stay on top of industry trends and plan our business strategy. This year’s CMO — which I unveiled in Paris today — will also be used by hundreds of thousands of analysts, suppliers, customers, media and aviation fans. It’s a story of big numbers and staggering growth. Here’s a look at the highlights.
The big picture
Let’s cut right to the chase and lay out the big picture. Over the next 20 years, Boeing sees a demand for 33,500 new airplanes valued at $4 trillion. The main drivers of these stats are economic growth around the world, especially in emerging markets, and the traveling public’s desire for new, nonstop routes.
Breakdown by airplane type
Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70 percent of the total. But we’ll also see continued growth for new twin-aisle airplanes like the 787 Dreamliner as well as the 777. Even though the large airplane market makes up a smaller percentage of demand, it will be a $270 billion market. That’s why we’re bringing the 747-8 Intercontinental to the marketplace. 970 new freighters will also be needed, with most of those being big freighters like the 747-8 F and 777 Freighters.
I had the chance to present the CMO to reporters in Paris today.
Asia Pacific is forecasted to need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion. That region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth. European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models.
The bottom line
The 2011 CMO is really a success story. It shows that the airlines managed to come out of recession, past recovery, and into a period of expansion. We here at Boeing are ready to meet the demand, as evidenced in this week’s announcement that we’ll increase production of our wildly popular Next-Generation 737 to 42 per month in the first half of 2014. The future looks bright and we look forward to the ride.
Check out the CMO video below featuring our 787 Dreamliner, 747-8 Intercontinental, 747-8 Freighter and some other beautiful Boeing airplanes.
By the way, as the world commercial fleet expands over the next 20 years, a number of things need to happen globally to support that demand. For one thing, we’re going to need a lot more people to fly and maintain those tens of thousands of new airplanes and to fill the jobs of those people who will retire. We also need to ensure a transformation in air traffic management around the world in order to increase capacity in the system.
Next week at the Paris Air Show, my colleague, Sherry Carbary, vice president of Boeing Flight Services, will release our 2011 Pilot and Technician Outlook. It’s a big number, up from last year, indicating that we’ll need tens of thousands of new pilots and technicians per year. Sherry plans to spell out what we need to do to meet those challenges. Should be a fascinating discussion.