The big reveal

It’s not easy trying to predict 20 years into the future. But here at Boeing, we have an excellent track record forecasting what’s ahead for the aviation market. For the past five decades, we’ve produced our Current Market Outlook (CMO) to help us stay on top of industry trends and plan our business strategy. This year’s CMO — which I unveiled in Paris today — will also be used by hundreds of thousands of analysts, suppliers, customers, media and aviation fans. It’s a story of big numbers and staggering growth. Here’s a look at the highlights.

The big picture

Let’s cut right to the chase and lay out the big picture. Over the next 20 years, Boeing sees a demand for 33,500 new airplanes valued at $4 trillion. The main drivers of these stats are economic growth around the world, especially in emerging markets, and the traveling public’s desire for new, nonstop routes.

Breakdown by airplane type

Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70 percent of the total. But we’ll also see continued growth for new twin-aisle airplanes like the 787 Dreamliner as well as the 777. Even though the large airplane market makes up a smaller percentage of demand, it will be a $270 billion market. That’s why we’re bringing the 747-8 Intercontinental to the marketplace. 970 new freighters will also be needed, with most of those being big freighters like the 747-8 F and 777 Freighters.

image/photo

I had the chance to present the CMO to reporters in Paris today.

Regional demand

Asia Pacific is forecasted to need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion. That region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth. European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models.

The bottom line

The 2011 CMO is really a success story. It shows that the airlines managed to come out of recession, past recovery, and into a period of expansion. We here at Boeing are ready to meet the demand, as evidenced in this week’s announcement that we’ll increase production of our wildly popular Next-Generation 737 to 42 per month in the first half of 2014. The future looks bright and we look forward to the ride.

Check out the CMO video below featuring our 787 Dreamliner, 747-8 Intercontinental, 747-8 Freighter and some other beautiful Boeing airplanes.

By the way, as the world commercial fleet expands over the next 20 years, a number of things need to happen globally to support that demand. For one thing, we’re going to need a lot more people to fly and maintain those tens of thousands of new airplanes and to fill the jobs of those people who will retire. We also need to ensure a transformation in air traffic management around the world in order to increase capacity in the system.

Next week at the Paris Air Show, my colleague, Sherry Carbary, vice president of Boeing Flight Services, will release our 2011 Pilot and Technician Outlook. It’s a big number, up from last year, indicating that we’ll need tens of thousands of new pilots and technicians per year. Sherry plans to spell out what we need to do to meet those challenges. Should be a fascinating discussion.

Comments (6)

Dave (Spokane):

A whopper of a number but great news for all involved. Enjoyed the video wish I could be in Oshkosh next month to see the Dreamliner in person . Enjoy Paris Randy .

Cristiano (Campo Grande, MS, Brazil.):

Dear Randy:

In fact is the best video you have co-produced. Congratulations! You stood in the front of the strategic products from Boeing. But I still love the 767, the little wide body :-) This aircraft has a huge potential. Nobody else built anything in such perfect size like the 767 until today.

Great accomplishments to you all in Paris!

Norman (Long Beach, California, United States ):

I think the rise in discount airlines around the world and that few operate widebodies contributes to the strong sales of single aisle 150-190 seat airliners.

With the strong numbers for Asia, Boeing will remain very strong in sales even with the COMAC C919 and Airbus aircraft being manufactured in China.

I think this is going to be a good airshow for Boeing with more orders than the last airshow in Paris. I look forward to seeing the numbers and in this case Airbus too with those big numbers.

Alessandro (Portugal):

Since Boeing 737 longstanding customer Ryanair acts as consultants on the C919, Im sure they get information what they need to do to compete with the established manufacturers.
2011 has been the year of the vulcanos so far, Chile, Eritrea and Iceland, just show how vulnerable our best technology still is.

Spencer Comert (Everett, WA):

After reading your blog, I checked and noticed Airbus' forecast is still showing till 2029 with lower expectations. Is this another area Boeing is leading the way? ;)

Congratulations on your 30th anniversary on the job and best wishes in Paris!

Dr Dorothy (Malaysia):

Congratulations to Boeing in Paris Airshow!
I miss the chance for joining the maiden flight of Boeing 787 last time and I still like the Boeing 777.

All the best to Boeing!

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