Musings from Montreal

MONTREAL - Bonjour from Canada where I’ve spent the past few days unveiling our 2011 Current Market Outlook for North America. The ties between Boeing and Canada go all the way back to 1919 when Bill Boeing and pilot Eddie Hubbard flew 60 letters from Vancouver, BC to Seattle in a Boeing C-700. Those letters were the first international airmail to reach the U.S.

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Making history in 1919.

Today, Boeing has a strong relationship with 14 airline customers in Canada. In fact, the top two scheduled airlines by capacity are proud Boeing customers. Along with our facilities in Winnipeg and hundreds of suppliers, we generate around $1 billion in activity in Canada each year.

While aviation growth in the Canada and the U.S. won’t see the kind of boom times as some other markets, we still expect to see long term, moderate expansion. Over the next 20 years, we’re forecasting the need for 7,530 new airplanes in the region valued at $760 billion. Demand will be greatest for single-aisles airplanes, with replacement of older aircraft being the top driver. That puts us in a perfect position with the most fuel-efficient airplanes in the segment—our Next-Generation 737 and the new 737 MAX.

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I did an interview with Business News Network in Canada. Click on the image to watch it.

Another thing that’s driving demand in North America is people traveling to and from destinations in Latin America and South America. It’s easy to see that Canadian airlines are expanding into these locations as well as the Caribbean. In Montreal alone, airlines are expanding into more long-range service to international markets—opening the door to our 787 Dreamliner.

Being in Montreal, there’s obviously a lot of talk and questions surrounding the Bombardier CSeries. Based on the orders to date, the CSeries has clearly been struggling… but only time will tell how successful it will be. Regardless, the CSeries is a prime example of the increasing competition we face around the globe as new players enter the race.

I’ll leave you with some before and after photos of the seafood pasta I enjoyed during dinner at a great Italian restaurant on the Montreal waterfront. I look forward to my next visit.

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Seafood pasta - before.

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Seafood pasta - after.

Comments (6)

V V (Montréal, Québec):

I have not been informed about your presentation in Montreal this year. I would have loved to come and listen to your forecast on North American Market.

I read the Montreal Gazette article and posted an entry on my blog (click here) about your comment.

Jim (Itasca, IL):

Looks like you even ate the shells!

RTD8450 (Wasaga Beach, Ontario. Canada):

Randy:

Glad to hear/see that you were able to come to the Nearly North, and sample one of the most multicultural and unique cities in the world. All of your Canadian fans hope that you both enjoyed yourself, and received a respectful, open-minded reception. Please come back soon!

Norman (Long Beach, California, United States ):

The CSeries is in a tough spot having to take on the competition between the slightly larger 737-700/7 and the A319/A319neo, people have suggested that a stretched version of the 300 model should be offered. The 737MAX would be a tremendous asset to airlines like West Jet and Sunwing.

Spencer (Montreal, Canada):

Come back again and bring the 787 with you :)

Bernie (London, Canada):


I find it interesting that the Bombardier CSeries is often described as being in a "tough spot", being in competition with the B-737 and A319/320 when, in fact, it was designed not to be in a competitive position by only having 110 seats in the smaller model.

Additionally, it is my impression that both Boeing and Airbus had no intention of developing a new engine version of their aircraft until Bombardier announced the production of the CSeries — causing them both to quickly search for new engines, and a new undercarriage redesign for the B-737MAX.

Although the new technology CSeries with savings of 15% in operating costs and 20% savings in fuel reduction puts itself in another league, compared to Boeing and Airbus, it seems to me that Bombardier can play a waiting game as to directly challenging the two giants with a larger version. Perhaps, the CAC C919 will do that.

It will be a patient period waiting until the end of 2012 to see how many 'options' will change to 'firm' orders ... for all airframers.

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