Earlier today in London, I presented our new 20-year forecast for the aviation market—better known as the CMO (Current Market Outlook). Before I share the highlights of that forecast, allow me to reminisce about how far we’ve come in air travel.
Back in 1977, I took my very first flight on board a Frontier Airlines 737. I was headed from my home in Kalispell, Montana to college in Ithaca, New York. That journey included a total of five legs—the last one being only 32 miles from Elmira to Ithaca.
Today, point to point air travel is more of the rule than the exception. It’s a part of everyday life that links us to family, friends, fun and business. And looking out over the next two decades as emerging markets continue to grow, more and more people around the world will be connected by affordable airline service.
I sat down with the BBC after presenting the CMO in London.
Our 2012 CMO projects a $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years. The single-aisle market, served by our Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, is forecasted to continue its robust growth. Widebodies, such as the 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airplane deliveries in the forecast.
The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries.
Without question my favorite part of the CMO rollout is the Q&A session with the media. We addressed everything from the global economy, to the cargo market, to our product strategy.
Being in Europe, of course I was asked about Airbus’ decision to build a new factory in Alabama. Based on my experience with US customers, success is all about the value of your products, your people and your relationship with customers—not about the address on your business card.
While air travel has certainly changed over the years, the reasons we do the CMO every year haven’t. I recently came across a Boeing CMO presentation from the early 1960s that showed the four reasons we do the CMO - for product and market planning, for sales planning and forecasting, for business planning, and to support our customers and suppliers. Those always have been the driving factors for doing this forecast—and probably always will be.
I invite you to take a look at the short video below that I filmed inside our Everett factory. It lays out some of the main points from the CMO, while giving you a look at our 787 and 777 lines. Enjoy!